Investment logic of the semiconductor industry in the new form
Release date: 2020-01-09 09:58:58 Visits: 532
We always insist on rethinking and looking for investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry. This article attempts to explore the logic of semiconductor investment under the marginal change. We believe that the core of investment is to find marginal changes, and the improvement of margins causes the stock price to rise. This article attempts to explain the logic of the marginal changes in the semiconductor industry and the marginal changes of each sub-sector and give a corresponding investment map.
1 Discuss that the design company has a growth path beyond the cycle. The core lies in the track logic of the company and the clear development trajectory that can be seen. We try to demonstrate that the marginal changes in design companies have the following 4 points: 1) the agglomeration effect of the electronics industry in mainland China has stimulated local demand for upstream semiconductor supply chains, and the engineer''s bonus is the marginal improvement of the environment; 2) the logic of the circuit''s marginal transition is less than the past decade The growth of mobile application-driven design companies is shifting to being dominated by design companies. 3) The "high gross profit" dividend dissipation transmission allows new entrants to rely on low gross profit to change the market structure and gain market value growth. It is possible to simulate the long-term high gross profit structure of enterprises. Change on the margin; 4) The inflection point signal needs to pay attention to the marginal change of the company''s R & D investment. Asset-light design companies cannot directly quantify future growth by generating income from the assets, and the marginal growth of R & D investment is the first to see the turning point of the company''s future growth. signal
2 The deterministic marginal change of the semiconductor equipment industry is that the construction cycle of China''s integrated circuit production lines will be concentrated in 2017H2-2018 and released. In the investment cycle, semiconductor equipment companies can fully enjoy this round of investment dividends. Regardless of whether it is an overseas or domestic semiconductor equipment standard, it is logically logical. We deeply disassemble the equipment investment expenditure of the mainland in each quarter, and use this as a rhythm to observe the timing of investment. Judging the marginal improvement of the demand for equipment procurement in mainland China began in 3Q 2017 and reached its peak in 2018H1.
3 The performance of the semiconductor packaging and testing sector is deterministically fulfilled, taking the industrial development law as the internal cause, and superimposing the catalysis determined by the industry''s marginal improvement in the second half of the year. Trying to prove from the three dimensions of scale, investment and technology that mainland packaging companies have made a leapfrog in the pursuit of global packaging and testing leaders, so it is the sector that can really enjoy the benefit of the industrial chain brought by this round of semiconductor recovery. . The marginal improvement lies in the incremental market opportunities and the reshaping of valuations. We demonstrate in detail.
